Assessing the Threat

"Thorough, stimulating and often provocative, the chapters in this volume provide a unique assessment of the complexities surrounding Taiwan's security. They examine the logic driving China's security policy and emerging military capabilities, strategy and doctrine, Taiwan's evolving defense capabilities and posture, the implications for U.S. military deployments in the west Pacific, issues of escalation control should war break out, and the potential future patterns of East Asia's security environment. These chapters coalesce to form the most important book yet published on this critical security problem." -Paul Godwin, National War College (ret.) |"No recent development has aroused more concern among U.S. policymakers and military officials than China's military buildup, which is viewed as a threat to Taiwan and which contains the potential for war between China and the U.S. But what is the nature of the threat? This multifaceted and in-depth examination by top experts provides the best available answer to one of the most critical issues today." -Ellis Joffe, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Michael D. Swaine is a senior associate in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's China Program. He has produced several seminal studies, which have expanded American and Chinese governmental officials' understanding of the Chinese military and its role in national security decision making, and Taiwan's national security decision-making process. Dr. Swaine spearheaded and currently co-directs a multi-year collaborative project on key aspects of Sino-American crisis management with a Beijing-based think tank. Dr. Swaine was named the first holder of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy Chair, and also served as research director for the center. His most recent book is Managing Sino-American Crises: Case Studies and Analysis (Carnegie Endowment, 2006). He received a Ph.D. in government from Harvard University. Andrew N. D. Yang has been on faculty at National Sun Yat-sen University since 1986, and is the Secretary General of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies (CAPS). He has trained as a security studies specialist particularly in the area of military competition and military balance in East Asia as well as PLA modernization and its impact on East Asia security. Evan S. Medeiros is currently a senior policy scientist at the RAND Corporation in the Washington, D.C. office, USA. He specializes in research on Asian security affairs, China's foreign and national security policies, U.S.-China relations, and Chinese military affairs. Prior to joining RAND, Dr. Medeiros was a senior research associate for East Asia at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, in Monterey, California, USA. He has recently published a book chapter titled " China's Evolving Nuclear Doctrine ," as well as three RAND studies: A New Direction for China's Defense Industry (MG-334-AF); Chasing the Dragon: Assessing China's System of Export Controls on WMD-Related Goods and Technologies (MG-353), and Modernizing China's Military: Opportunities and Constraints (MG-260-AF). He holds a Ph.D. in international relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science, UK, an M.Phil in international relations from the University of Cambridge, UK, and an M.A. in China studies from the University of London, UK. Oriana Skylar Mastro was a junior fellow with the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace during 2006-2007. She holds a B.A. from Stanford University in East Asian Studies with honors in International Security, USA. Fluent in Mandarin Chinese, she will pursue a Ph.D. in politics at Princeton University beginning fall 2007.

AcknowledgmentsAcronymsPrefaceSection One: Introduction and Regional Context1. Introduction2. China's Asia Policy: Strategy and TacticsSection Two: People's Liberation Army (PLA) Doctrine and Capabilities3. The PLA and Joint Operations: Moving from Theory Toward Practice4. Evolving Chinese Concepts of War Control and Escalation Management5. PLA Power Projection: Current Realities and Emerging TrendsSection Three: Threats, Deterrence, and Escalation Control in a Taiwan Contingency6. Air Force Deterrence and Escalation Calculations for a Taiwan Strait Conflict: China, Taiwan, and the United States7. The Military Instrument of Statecraft at Sea: Naval Options in an Escalatory Scenario Involving Taiwan: 2007-20168. The Nuclear Dimension: How Likely? How Stable?9. PRC Information Operations: Myths, Trends, and New Opportunities10. Taiwan's Defense Preparation Against the Chinese Military Threat11. The Implications of Chinese Military Modernization for U.S.Force Posture in a Taiwan ConflictSection Four: Conclusions12. Future East Asian Security Architecture: Implications for the PLA13. Assessing the ThreatBibliographyIndexContributorsCarnegie Endowment for International Peace