Extreme Events

Mario Chavez is a scientist at the Institute of Engineering in Mexico. He has served as a Secretary (1981-1983) and Vice President (1991-1993) of the Mexican Society for Earthquake Engineering AC, Network Director accelerograph and Seismological Research Institute for Engineering, Guadalajara, Mexico (1993-1998 ), and also as an External Adviser of the Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources of the Government of Mexico (2001-2003). He has published 30 articles in journals and 65 conferences, national and international, as well as 76 technical studies. He has directed 12 theses of Bachelor, Masters and 7 Doctoral. His research interests include seismic risk in urban and industrial environment, numerical modeling with supercomputer seismic waves propagation, and extreme events and their economic impact. Michael Ghil is a distinguished research Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and the Director of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at UCLA. He joined the Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory (Ecole Normale Suprieure (ENS)) in the year 2002 as a distinguished Professor of Geosciences. He is a highly cited author in the field of geosciences with his research focus on the physics of climate change on all time scales. He is the author of a dozen books and over 275 refereed articles (including the Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA) and book chapters in the area of geophysics and climate dynamics. His research interests include atmospheric and oceanic sciences, climate dynamics, dynamical and complex systems theory, estimation theory, extreme events and prediction, geophysical fluid dynamics, macroeconomics, numerical and statistical methods, remote sensing and applications. He was awarded the 2011 Alfred Wegener Medal from the European Geosciences Union and has been recognized as an honorary member of the Union in 2012. Jaime Urrutia Fucugauchi is the Director of the Institute of Geophysics at National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) since 1997 and is a Professor at the Institute of Geophysics at UNAM since 1984. He is also the Chairman, Department of Geomagnetism and Geophysical Exploration at the Institute of Geophysics, UNAM (since 1984). He is a former President of the Mexican Geophysical Union (1985-1987). He has also served as an Associate Editor of the Journal of Geophysical Research (1993-1995) (American Geophysical Union). He has over 200 research articles in the field. His research interests include Geo- and Paleo-magnetism, Magnetostratigraphy, Paleogeography and Tectonics, Paleoclimatic and Environmental Evolution and Exploration Geophysics.

Contributors vii Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii 1 Introduction Mario Chavez, Michael Ghil, and Jaime Urrutia]Fucugauchi 1 Part I: Fundamentals and Theory 7 2 Applications of Extreme Value Theory to Environmental Data Analysis Gwladys Toulemonde, Pierre Ribereau, and Philippe Naveau 9 3 Dynamical Systems Approach to Extreme Events Catherine Nicolis and Gregoire Nicolis 23 4 Skill of Data]based Predictions versus Dynamical Models: A Case Study on Extreme Temperature Anomalies Stefan Siegert, Jochen Brcker, and Holger Kantz 35 5 Detecting and Anticipating Climate Tipping Points Timothy M Lenton and Valerie N Livina 51 6 Understanding ENSO Variability and Its Extrema: A Delay Differential Equation Approach Michael Ghil and Ilya Zaliapin 63 Part II: Extreme Events in Earths Space Environment 79 7 Drivers of Extreme Space Weather Events: Fast Coronal Mass Ejections Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, and Stilian Stoev 81 8 Chicxulub Asteroid Impact: An Extreme Event at the Cretaceous/Paleogene Boundary Jaime Urrutia]Fucugauchi and Ligia Prez]Cruz 93 Part III: Climate and Weather Extremes 113 9 Weather and Climatic Drivers of Extreme Flooding Events over the Midwest of the United States Andrew W Robertson, Yochanan Kushnir, Upmanu Lall, and Jennifer Nakamura 115 10 Analysis of the Hazards and Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System: The Case of Hurricane Wilma Edgar Mendoza, Rodolfo Silva, Cecilia Enriquez]Ortiz, Ismael Mario]Tapia, and Anglica Felix 125 11 Observations and Modeling of Environmental and Human Damage Caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Kazuhisa Goto, Fumihiko Imamura, Shunichi Koshimura, and Hideaki Yanagisawa 137 12 Extreme Capillary Wave Events Under Parametric Excitation Michael G Shats, Hua Xia, and Horst Punzmann 153 Part IV: Extreme Events in the Solid Earth 163 13 A Review of Great Magnitude Earthquakes and Associated Tsunamis along the Guerrero, Mexico Pacific Coast: A Multiproxy Approach Mara]Teresa Ramrez]Herrera, Nstor Corona, and Gerardo Surez 165 14 Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy and Its Geographical and Temporal Variations Paola Salvati, Mauro Rossi, Cinzia Bianchi, and Fausto Guzzetti 177 15 An Extreme Event Approach to Volcanic Hazard Assessment Servando De la Cruz]Reyna and Ana Teresa Mendoza]Rosas 195 Part V: Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Events 205 16 Economic Impact of Extreme Events: An Approach Based on Extreme Value Theory Richard W Katz 207 17 Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and Their Direct Economic Impacts: A Hybrid Approach Mario Chavez, Eduardo Cabrera, Silvia Garcia, Erik Chavez, Mike Ashworth, Narciso Perea, and Alejandro Salazar 219 18 Tropical Cyclones: From the Influence of Climate to Their Socioeconomic Impacts Suzana J Camargo and Solomon M Hsiang 303 19 Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy Andreas Groth, Patrice Dumas, Michael Ghil, and Stphane Hallegatte 343 Part VI: Prediction and Preparedness 361 20 Extreme Tsunami Events in the Mediterranean and Its Impact on the Algerian Coasts Lubna A Amir, Walter Dudley, and Brian G McAdoo 363 21 High]Tech Risks: The 2011 Thoku Extreme Events Heriberta Castaos and Cinna Lomnitz 381 22 On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach; Prediction Algorithms; Applications to Disaster Preparedness Vladimir Keilis]Borok, Alexandre Soloviev, and Andrei Gabrielov 391 Index 407